14/5/24 Prices
| The two big movers in overnight cash markets were chickpeas delivered Delhi market and white wheat out of the US Pacific Northwest. The move in US white wheat values reflected more than the jump in Chicago and Minneapolis wheat futures. In Aussie dollar terms the move higher in white wheat is equivalent to about AUD$19.80 / tonne. While the move in hard red winter wheat futures is closer to AUD$14.87 at this mornings exchange rate. The move in white wheat values may be somewhat of a catch up move after values failed to track the red wheat market higher in the US over the last few sessions. The market reports out after the close in the US did not offer any new news, fundamentally the strength is still being drawn from poor conditions in the Russian winter wheat crop. This is interesting as there was a sharp decline in Black Sea FOB wheat values according to cash market reports. It will be interesting to see if there is a recovery from this adjustment lower in Black Sea values in tonight’s session. Delhi market chickpea values remain very volatile, last night touching 6699Rs/Q, roughly equivalent to AUD$1214/tonne. Using average packing and shipping costs this tends to point to current new crop values being bid here, around AUD$1000 +/-, as acceptable. The weekly USDA crop progress report was out after the close. Winter wheat in head now pegged at 57% at a national level. Kansas at 73% in head, this compares to the 5 year average of just 43% in head and could be translated as stressed crops reaching maturity quicker. 31% of the Kansas HRWW crop was rated as Good / Excellent, back 1pt from last week. Last weeks report rates 33% of the Kansas crop as Poor / Very Poor, that increased 2pts to 35% in this weeks report. Possibly signalling there is more to this wheat futures rally than just the ongoing Russian / Ukraine war. |
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