Both world cash and futures values for most grains were lower last night.
Technical Tuesday, profit taking, call it what you will, maybe a reality check. The situation in Russian warrants watching but to say there’s been a disaster in regards to frost in wheat is probably over kill. Some private analyst closer to the ground have reduced there production estimate for Russian winter wheat. Those reductions caused by drought initially and now some frost damage. I’ve seen estimates around 85 – 88 million tonnes for Russia. A far cry from the drought devastated crop of 2010 which produced roughly 45mt.
The profit taking pushed across wheat, corn and soybean futures, the later weighing on oilseed values resulting in sharp losses in both Winnipeg canola and Paris rapeseed. The AUD didn’t do anything to help buffer these adjustments, if anything the 0.29% gain in the AUD will work against the conversion to a domestic price equivalent here today. The fall in Paris rapeseed equates to a day to day change of roughly AUD$11.84 downwards, Winnipeg canola moving lower by roughly AUD$15.21.
International sorghum values, once converted to a local equivalent, are generally flat to lower, the biggest move lower equivalent to roughly AUD$2.00 / tonne but move indicators show a flat market into the Asian consumer. The move does tend to indicate that world values are back on their current trend line prior to the recent rally, which was not reflected here in local cash values. Potentially that spike being the selling opportunity the trade was looking for.

Heavy rain in Brazil’s SE corner is contracting north. The states of Santa Catarina and Parana are likely to see heavy falls over the next 7 days. These rains may spill over onto already saturated fields of northern Rio Grande do Sul, further delaying wheat sowing there. Conditions in Argentina are actually drying out, a lot. Conditions there are not yet too dry but with little recorded rain over the last fortnight and nothing on the 7 day map it may start to get a mention.