27/5/24 Prices

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The better grade wheat wheat futures in the US continued to push higher overnight, but soft red winter wheat futures found resistance and closed a smidge lower. The move lower in SRWW didn’t hurt the good weekly gains in all three wheat grades. Hard red winter wheat futures at Chicago showing an improvement week on week of AUD$32.98 for the nearby contract. Local H2 for the same period gaining AUD$19.00 on the track.
Canadian and US wheat values out of the Pacific Northwest were mostly higher over night, spring wheat and HRWW putting on AUD$3.00 to AUD$5.00 per tonne while US white wheat values were flat. Rainfall across the US PNW, where the bulk of the US white wheat is grown, has been a little light. We may see the spread for white wheat improve some if this continues. The current spread between white wheat and red wheat out of the PNW does tend to indicate that US white wheat is currently cheap. Especially when compared to both old and new crop wheat values out of Australia. Map attached.

There are some early samples of dry land durum coming off from the Foggia region of Italy. Test weight of 82kg/ha and a protein level at 15.8% is very good. Unfortunately the weather map does not appear to be on their side. Showers are predicted across that part of Italy on Sunday and again mid week.
The 2024-25 S&D for world durum what continues to unfold. Yield issues in Italy may also be followed by a smaller crop in Mexico, some analyst now predicting the crop there to be as small as 1.21mt (1.91mt LY). This may somewhat counter the better crop expected out of Turkey this year, ensuring world prices remain relatively firm compared to milling wheat’s. Cash prices across SE Saskatchewan still show a decline in 1CWAD13 durum value between old and new crop. Nearby priced at roughly C$392.22 / tonne and new crop closer to C$355 per tonne, values from PDQ.

The French soft wheat rating declined week on week, now pegged at 63% G/E, durum fell 2pts to 64% G/E. Paris milling wheat futures for Dec24 +E3.00/t.

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