US hard red winter wheat futures move convincingly higher, soft red winter wheat and spring wheat are higher, just not as convincingly. The move has a few of the punters in the US tipping near term wheat highs could be in. Are they talking their book, having a stab in the dark, failing to register all fundamentals, only time will tell.
There were reports of port fires at Rostov yesterday, a Russian port in the Azov Sea. One can only assume from an air attack by Ukraine. There is also talk of a large number of Russian troops amassing along the Russian / Ukraine “border” in the south. So we may continue to see some volatility driven not only by the Russian weather, but also politics, throughout the northern hemisphere summer.

The USDA put out the weekly crop progress report last night. So much for corn planting being delayed, at 83% sown it is actually 1pt above the 5 year avg pace. Soybean sowing is pegged at 68% done, 5pts above the 5 year avg, so nothing to see there either. Sorghum sowing is also progressing nicely across all the major sorghum states. Texas is the most advanced with 82% sown, Kansas stands at 24% sown, 10pts above the 5 year average pace.
77% of the winter wheat is now in head, Kansas 94%. This is also more advanced than the 5 year average of 69% nationally.
The most important part of the data, the winter wheat crop condition rating slipped a little, from 42/7 – 49% G/E to 40/8-48% G/E. Last week Kansas winter wheat was rated at 30/3-33% G/E, this week we see the rating fall to 29/3-32% Good / Excellent. The Kansas crop continues to decline. At 94% in head it is trying to fill grain now. Recent showers and storms should stop the G/E rating for Kansas sliding further but may now be putting pressure on quality ratings across the soft red winter wheat states further north. Will it be a head scab year for the USA.
Spring wheat sowing progress was good, at 88% complete it is 7pts ahead of the 5 year avg. Storms may delay the last of the sowing.