7/6/24 Prices

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Both Paris rapeseed futures and Winnipeg canola futures had a reasonable correction last night after multiple softer sessions over the last few nights. Paris closed higher in both the nearby and Feb 25 contracts, Aug +E6.75, Feb +E5.50. Taking the slightly stronger AUD into account, the nearby rally converts to an AUD increase of roughly AUD$10.56 / tonne. Winnipeg also reflected bigger gain on the nearby +C$22.70 in the July slot, with the Jan 25 slot closing C$17.30 higher, +AUD$24.01 nearby.
News that Canada reduced their official interest rate appeared to have little bearing on the value of the CAD against the AUD. One may have thought the news could have reduced the CAD against the AUD but it actually rallied a little, taking almost a dollar away from the conversion value of canola futures.

Chicago corn futures were said to have dragged soybeans higher. The US made better than expected weekly sales and exports of corn but the numbers don’t 100% back up the rally that took place. Combine this with speculation that the funds were also on the sell side of the corn pit and I’m a little perplexed over the gains in US corn futures. Always remember two things though, “the market is never wrong” and “the market will remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. As with corn, the fundamentals supporting a 20c/bu rally in soybean futures were a little questionable. Net weekly sales of US corn totaled 1.18mt, that’s a good result, up 46% on the previous week and +41% on the 4wk avg. Enough to sustain a rally ????
Weekly US net sorghum sales were back 9% from the previous week, totaling 56.1kt, but up 61% on the 4 week average. Exports of 68kt were destined for China. Sorghum values out of the US Gulf and CiF China were both higher overnight. US values following corn to some degree, putting on roughly AUD$4.00 to AUD$4.50 FOB equivalent. This may help, but might struggle to stop, weaker port values here. We still need to see a big uptick in either confirmed box trade orders of stem booking for sorghum to keep a pulse in local sorghum prices.

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