11/6/24 Prices

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The USDA released their weekly US crop progress report last night. There were no real surprises apart from maybe a little better progress than expected in the sowing of summer crops. A slight decline in the condition of the US winter wheat crop may also help put the brakes on the current decline in futures.

US corn sowing has progressed to 95% complete. The Good / Excellent corn rating, although back 1pt, is still pretty good at 74% G/E. Iowa rates at 73% G/E.
Soybean sowing also progressed well, with 87% of the beans now in the ground. The G/E rating for US beans came out at 72%, which isn’t too bad either.
Sorghum sowing progressed to 65% sown, that’s 5pts above the 5 year average, so no real issues there (rain makes grain). Kansas is now more than half way through their sorghum sowing program.
US winter wheat was estimated by the USDA to be 89% in head now, and 12% harvested. Headers moved into fields across south central Kansas last week. The USDA estimate around 5% of the Kansas winter wheat crop is already in the bin.
The overall rating for the US winter wheat crop deteriorated a little, falling from 49% G/E last week to 47% this week.
Spring wheat sowing in the northern states was estimated at 98% complete, a good effort considering how wet some parts were. The condition rating for the spring wheat crop is good, with 72% of their crop rated G/E. In N.Dakota, the largest spring wheat producer, the crop is rated 79% G/E.

US wheat futures were sold down last night, most grades shedding 20c/bu +/- (AUD$11.11/t). Combine this with a slightly firmer AUD and it may put some further downward pressure on local prices here today after recent advances in basis. Local merchants can’t look for any help from the Paris market. There too saw               losses, the Dec24 contract for Paris milling wheat shedding E4.75/t (AUD$7.73/t). WASDE out on the 12th, Thursday morning here.

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