US wheat futures were mixed, generally finding support from short covering in the futures market and a reduction in the G/E rating of the French crop, which is now being harvested. French soft wheat fell from a rating of 57% G/E last week to 52% this week, that’s a big week on week decline. Harvest progress is also very slow at just 14% in the bin versus the 5 year average of 43% complete. The 7 day forecast for Europe shows continued showers across much of western France, Germany, UK, Romania and Bulgaria.

Reports from Russia show the average wheat yield continuing to decline as the harvest progresses. Frost at grain fill and then a hot, dry spring checked the Russian crop this year. Production is still expected to exceed 80mt though, keeping Russia well in the lead as the worlds largest wheat exporter. Conditions across the Russian and Kazakhstan spring wheat districts remain wet, probably too wet. Quality may come into question there this year, if yields do not.

In Argentina the last of the winter crop to be sown is now likely to be abandoned. Weather turned dry in Argentina right at planting. Much of the main wheat producing area of Cordoba, Santa Fe and the Pampas remained dry last week, and is not expected to see further rain in the week ahead. Further north in Brazil the major wheat producing region, the SE, continues to see heavy rain, a common theme there for months now.

Hot, dry weather is also taking its toll on the Canadian spring wheat and durum crops. The Canadian crop is very mixed this year, some locations racking up an expensive fungicide bill trying to prevent leaf disease due to the wet, while other locations are seeing what can only be described as crop failure due to a lack of rain. Either way, the averages still pull the production up, durum expected to come in well above last years production.