Chicago corn and wheat staged a slight recovery after sharp losses on Friday. Soft red winter wheat and hard red winter wheat performed better than the spring wheat contract at the Minneapolis exchange. Spring wheat values are still under some pressure from the better than expected yield estimates gathered from the US crop tour that took place last week. Participants pegged potential yields much higher than many had expected to see.
As for the soft red winter and hard red winter wheat, last nights USDA crop progress report pegged the winter wheat harvest at 82% complete. Many of the major winter wheat states are now complete, it’s just the far northern and eastern states that are to be completed. These states generally have fewer acres but larger yields. The Pacific Northwest states produce roughly 16% of the US winter wheat crop (map attached).

Chicago soybeans were not invited to the party and continued to push lower, dragging outer month Winnipeg canola and Paris rapeseed futures contracts lower. The softer sentiment in bean futures wasn’t lost in cash bids across the US, many traders also pulling basis back for cash bids as well. The trade had anticipated a reduction in the weekly Good / Excellent rating for beans in last nights USDA crop progress report. They were right, but a reduction of 2pts may not be enough to fend of the funds shorting beans further. With 44% of the US soybean crop now setting pods and the the crop generally not doing it too tough, it won’t be long until the US summer crop starts to come under harvest pressure too.
The spillover pressure from weakness in the US soybean market for Winnipeg canola futures isn’t the only thing canola values in Canada are contending with. Their crop is generally in good shape too. Technical traders see some level of support for ICE canola creeping in at C$630. Nearby futures closed just a few dollars above that number last night. The punters do expect to see buying if this value is breached, possibly creating a bounce. At the end of the day Australian canola will need to compete with Canadian canola into both the EU and China. At the current level of new crop bids, it may struggle.