5/8/24 Prices

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Paris rapeseed is an interesting calculation this morning. The Feb25 slot fell from €474.25 / tonne Thursday to €473.75, back just €0.50 / tonne. The difference between the Euro / AUD day to day is the interesting part, 0.6023 on Thursday to 0.5965 last night. If you look at Paris futures on Thursday it converted to AUD$787.39 / tonne, Friday converts to roughly AUD$794.14 per tonne, an increase in comparable value of AUD$6.82. The increase is also reflected in FOB Rouen values day to day in AUD / tonne. Winnipeg canola futures were higher, in both AUD terms and CAD terms. Values ex farm SE Saskatchewan were also firmer, a Feb25 lift averaging C$568.58, up C$2.80 per tonne.
If we want to talk about currency volatility look no further than the Japanese Yen. No more than a couple of weeks ago it was looking like the AUD was worth roughly 110 yen, last night that exchange was closer to 95.39, well done to anyone who booked their Japanese holiday and locked their spending money in last 2 weeks. That’s not me, I’ll be lucky to buy a beer at the local pub for a holiday this year. Why didn’t someone tell me doing up broken down old cars was so expensive….. oh yeah, they did.

US soybean futures found early support from a 200kt sale to China. The buying in beans spilled over into wheat and corn resulting in a higher close for both. US corn is seeing a pretty good run, conditions have been harsh in a few spots but generally the crop is doing OK and there’s not much in the US weather forecast that can be construed as bullish.
Wheat futures at Chicago closed higher, as mentioned above the action in the bean pit triggered some technical buying but there is also a little fundamental concern creeping in to support wheat too. The hot dry finish in Canada and the dry start to the program in Argentina to mention two. Lower year on year production for Ukraine and Russia isn’t a bad thing for price either. The French wheat crop is 67% harvested now, the balance rated at 50% G/E.

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