7/8/24 Prices
It was a bit of a nothing session at Chicago for wheat and corn, corn a smidge lower, wheat a smidge higher. Conditions in Canada appear to have put the brakes on further erosion of Minneapolis spring wheat values. Chicago soybeans were sold off, shedding double digits in the nearby and outer month contracts. The rapeseed futures market at Paris was lower, the Feb 25 slot closed at €452.25, back €3.75. The Winnipeg canola contract played a little catch up after the Canadian got back from a long weekend. The Jan 25 slot shed C$23.20, closing under C$600 at C$596.30.
World cash wheat bids were generally a little firmer. When taking the AUD into account most values in AUD/tonne do not show improvements though. In fact some points of origin are a little lower in AUD/t terms. For instance HRW and WW out of the US PNW are both lower day to day in AUD terms. Black Sea values are flat to firmer, the improvement in Ukraine and Russian values in USD FOB being counter greatly by the stronger AUD.
Roughly calculated the move in the AUD is only worth about -AUD$1.50 for wheat, so you can see how little volatility there was in global wheat overnight.
US corn yield expectations, on average, continue to improve. There are pockets that are doing it tough but generally the US is not in bad shape and given current average yield estimates the crop, even though few acres have been sown, could well come in only a couple of million tonnes under last years crop.
US sorghum values don’t appear to have yet responded to a sharp drop in the condition rating in Monday USDA crop progress report. Overnight FOB Texas values, in AUD taking day to day currency moves into account, actually fell away about AUD$3.60 per tonne. The CiF value index for China also moved lower, shedding roughly AUD$2.86 day to day. The reduction in Chinese CiF value still leaves about $40 – $60 on the table for the trade here, and should promote further sales of Aussie sorghum, probably out QLD, into the Asian market.