27/8/24 Prices

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US wheat futures were generally lower, HRWW futures did kick the trend nearby though, the Sept and Dec contracts closed in the green. Paris milling wheat followed the generic market lower, shedding €5.00 nearby and €3.50 in the December slot. Cash bids ex farm SE Saskatchewan were also lower, spring wheat there bid on average at C$230.59 XF for a Dec lift, C$1.15 lower day to day according to PDQ.
Chicago soybeans surprised the punters, many had been expecting to see a lower start to the week given the ProFarmer crop tour yield estimates were better than expected. The move higher in soybean futures at Chicago wasn’t huge but it did spillover into the both the Winnipeg canola market and Paris rapeseed futures. Combine the move higher in rapeseed and canola with the slightly weaker AUD this morning, and we may see a rally in local new crop bids today.

The weekly USDA crop progress report was released after the close. A quick skim over the report shows a slight decline for the corn Good / Excellent rating, back from 51/16 – 67% last week to 49/16 – 65% this week. 84% of the US corn crop is now in the dough stage. The soybean condition rating fell 1pt in the G/E rating, now at 67% with around 6% of US beans dropping leaves. Sorghum harvest moved up to 67% complete in Texas. The other sorghum growing states are yet to strike a blow. Kansas sorghum is 38% coloured. Spring wheat harvest moved through to 51% complete, now just 2pts behind the 5 year average harvest progress for this time of year. The spring wheat condition rating declined from 61/12 – 73% last week to 56/13 – 69% this week. The P/VP rating in spring wheat was up from 5% last week to 10% this week.
Showers across S.Dakota and NE Montana are a slight problem. Over the next 7 days falls are expected to be more to the NE of the US spring wheat belt. Harvest progress across Minnesota has been good, most spring wheat fields there now close to completion, if not already in the bin. Late soybeans may suffer a little from this prolonged wet spell. Rain across Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma should help new season wheat sowing but will hinder sorghum harvest.

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