US wheat futures were higher overnight, that is a week of higher closes for HRWW futures at Chicago. The nearby contract put on 32.5c/bu this week. At today’s exchange rate that is worth about AUD$17.65 / tonne. Compared to last Friday’s close, week on week, new crop H2 NTP Newcastle fell a dollar. Weaker local price and the move higher in the US price did erode a significant amount of the discount US wheat was showing over Aussie wheat into the Asian market, bringing both origins much closer together now.
A combination of fund liquidation in US wheat futures shorts, and the desire of the US merchants to sell a little higher after harvest acquisition, should continue to support US wheat futures, and hopefully US physical wheat values out of the PNW in the short to mid term. The US weekly export sales pace has been good for wheat and corn, mainly due to very competitive values.
It should be noted that the rally in US wheat futures wasn’t a general reflection of wheat values around the world. Some locations, such as the Black Sea actually saw a slight reduction in value day to day. Paris milling wheat futures for the Dec 24 slot closed just €0.75/t higher, the March slot flat and outer months were actually a smidge lower. Canadian cash values closely tracked the US market.

Soyoil futures gave back some of the previous sessions gains but not meal and beans, both closing higher. Winnipeg canola gave back some of the impressive gains made in the previous session, down C$5.80 in the Jan25 slot. Paris held onto values, closing a little higher in the nearby slot, Feb25 gaining €0.75/t to close at €471.75/t in the Feb 25 slot.
Comparing Canadian and Australian canola values C&F Europe indicates that Canadian canola is still a little cheaper than Aussie canola. There’s not a lot in it though, maybe US$30.00, which could be picked up in currency hedging and freight arbitrage by the larger merchants.