Chicago grain futures were unconvincingly higher in overnight trade. Wheat, corn and soybeans all closing in the green by a few cents per bushel. Spring wheat at Minneapolis was the best of them, closing up 6.5c/bu in the December slot. This close to a WASDE release date one might expect this kind of trade. Paris milling wheat was a little more convincing. December milling wheat closed €2.75 higher at €222.75 / tonne. London feed wheat futures were higher and Paris rapeseed also closed the session in the green, putting on €2.00 in the Feb 2025 slot.
World cash wheat bids were all over the shop. According to Com3, Black Sea wheat values were sharply lower while French values were sharply higher. It will be interesting to see if this is an anomaly in their reporting system of if trade there was influenced by something more than the current Ukraine / Russian war.

Russian values were beginning to find support from less than ideal sowing conditions for winter wheat and some wet weather leading up to spring wheat harvest in Siberia and Kazakhstan. To see values for both Russian and Ukraine FOB wheat sharply lower is a surprise.
News out of the region continues to be more bullish than bearish this morning. One article reducing harvested area in the Kursk region by 160kha due to the war. Another report stating that rain of biblical proportions has reduced Kazakhstan wheat and barley production and quality significantly. The report warns that unless things ease up, up to 10-15% of total production of spring wheat and barley could be lost completely. Current the barley estimate is 3.0mt (3.4mt) and the wheat estimate is 14.2mt (15.8mt).

The US released CPI data overnight this may have a lot or little impact on FX, more likely little. The number came in about where the punters expected. Suggesting an annualised rate around 2.5%, down from 2.9% in July. Core inflation remains high. But honestly there’s a model to talk your book of choice.