18/9/24 Prices
International wheat futures were generally a little lower, although spring wheat futures at Minneapolis did buck the trend, managing to close a smidge higher across all months. Paris milling wheat pushed lower, shedding €1.25 for both the December and March contracts. Both Winnipeg canola and Paris rapeseed were higher, Feb25 Paris rapeseed up €4.50/t by the close, and Winnipeg canola gaining C$9.10/t in the January slot.
Cash wheat bids out of the US Pacific Northwest were relatively unchanged, both US and Canadian values moving +/- less the AUD$0.50/t. Black Sea wheat values were a little firmer. Out loading risk continues to increase Ukraine values, which moved roughly AUD$2.00 higher overnight, whereas Russian values were up roughly AUD$0.50/t.
Nearby offers for barley FOB Rouen France were lower than where they closed last week at, shedding roughly €5.00/t, but weakness in the AUD against the EURO has basically countered that negativity once converting French values to C&F Asia and then back to an equivalent port price here in Australia. When comparing C&F China values for feed barley Australian barley continues to be their cheapest option, but Argentine offers C&F China have closed that gap a lot in recent days, now just US$10.00 over barley offers from Western Australia.
Converting Aussie values C&F China to an ex farm LPP price equivalent gives us a rough number of AUD$270 per tonne. Currently we see feed barley bid at AUD$308 delivered Downs, one could assume LPP end user bids should be close to this given the current new crop supply estimates. This, if true, would show east coast barley paying a domestic premium of roughly $18.00 to the export market, this may well be eroded if grower selling picks up with harvest or we see a sudden collapse in global values. There is nothing currently suggesting that is likely from either a fundamental or political perspective. Flat to firmer world corn values should also be supportive of international barley values in the mid term.