The USDA World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates report was out last night. This month WASDE is a bit of a fizzer for wheat. Not bearish but not really that bullish either.
A closer look at wheat shows US ending stocks were increased a smidge, just 80kt. World ending stocks were reduced by 150kt but production was increased by about 650kt to 794.73mt. The difference being absorbed by lower imports / exports and higher domestic demand. Australian production was left unchanged at 32mt with carry out a very tight 2.75mt. The USDA reduced Argentine production by 500kt to 17.5mt, potentially still a smidge too high given their dry season. EU production was reduced 400kt to 122.6mt, EU exports were left unchanged at 30mt, that will probably get adjusted lower down the line. Russian production was back 500kt to 81.5mt and Russian exports were reduced 500kt to counter the production reduction. Russia seeing no change to projected carry out. Brazilian production was back 500kt, could have been more given the washout they suffered. Brazilian imports were left unchanged, one could have expected to see that increase a little for milling wheat. The net impact for Brazil was a decrease in carry out to a very small 1.39mt. Rio Grande do Sul state agency reports wheat production higher though, up 60kt to 4.12mt, 1.52mt better than last year, potentially talking their book me thinks.
Chinese imports were reduced 500kt the net impact was simply 500kt less carry out, but carry is still massive at 134mt. That represents 52% of world wheat ending stocks. When you look at it like that it does tend to tell you why there are more people expecting to see 700c/bu wheat than 500c/bu wheat.

US and European wheat futures markets, and most cash markets, were uninspired by the report, most locations closing either side of unchanged. Again the big winner in last nights session was canola and rapeseed. The oilseed market continues to defy gravity, Chicago beans were up just 4c/bu in the January slot while Paris rapeseed gained €3.75/t nearby and Winnipeg put on C$5.30/t nearby.