12/6/25 Prices
| The US futures market saw mostly technical trade ahead of tonight’s monthly USDA World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates report and their weekly export shipments and sales report. The consensus leading into the WASDE report is for larger world and US wheat production, with increases in both hard red winter and spring wheat. The punters also, on average, are said to be expecting to see an increase in both US and world carry over wheat stocks. I’m not 100% convinced this is what they will see given the age of the data in the report, and the uptick in US wheat export sales over the reporting period used to determine these numbers. There’s also the chance that a reduction in Chinese wheat production could be reflected in this report, but we may have some political influence creep into this number as well. We may see little change in Chinese data until a few sales have been made to China. An increase of the Russian crop may throw some water on the fire, depending if the gains in Russia will counter the potentially lower production for Ukraine, France & Germany. It should actually be an interesting report. Maybe not the report we need to kick the market 100c/bu, but there’s scope for upside if the Chinese, French and Ukraine data rings true. The 7 days forecast for the Canadian Prairies still looks OK but the volume of rain expected to fall has been reduced a little. 15mm to 35mm will go a long way to stopping the decline in condition of many fields, but there is a area across SW Saskatchewan which is now showing little chance of greater than 5-10mm. This is not enough for that area as it has been one of the drier regions of Saskatchewan this summer. The models tend to show the wetter weather will dip south across the US spring wheat region. Topping up an already saturated N.Dakota and bringing more heavy rain to S.MN and Iowa. Will this have an impact on spring and summer crops, yes, but probably more beneficial than negative. Rainfall is also predicted across Montana, first good season there for a while. |
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