US wheat futures saw some sharp moves higher overnight. The move in the futures market spilled over to higher values for both Canadian and US wheat out of the Pacific Northwest too. Futures saw spillover support from the previous session, which had reacted to lower than expected quality ratings for US winter wheat in the USDA weekly crop progress report out Tuesday evening. There is also some speculation that new money is also moving into the wheat futures market, possibly due to international instability and talk of a US recession in Q3.
The US FED held interest rates unchanged yesterday. Consideration was given to the current tariff war with everyone and the impact it will have on local inflation. This was said to be the main reason rates were unchanged according to the left, but this does line up with FED policy from each of their previous meetings this year. We don’t see the RBA meet again on policy until July 7th-8th here.

The 4 – 7 day forecast for the US & Canada has wound back the prospect of rain a little overnight. Southern Alberta and much of central Saskatchewan should see some good falls but the durum belt of southern Saskatchewan is now only expected to see 5-10mm. This will have a big impact on struggling cereal crops like spring wheat and durum. Rainfall is expected to ease across the US HRWW belt, allowing harvest to progress faster. The US spring wheat belt is expected to see showers with heavier falls to the east. Conditions across the central corn belt and the major soybean areas are expected to become a little drier. This will not a be a problem, and in fact may be just what the row crops were looking for. Temperatures across the US corn belt will remain favourable and days will become warmer across Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, greatly assisting the HRWW harvest when combined with the drier weather expected there.
Hot conditions across Kazakhstan and the Russian spring wheat belt were not ideal. 35C is up to 6C above the average there. The spring wheat crop in this region has been sitting in mud all season though, so some hot weather may actual benefit the crop, possibly helping with quality.