Trump in true Trump form has stated that US ground support is not likely to occur in Iran, but also states that as long as Israel is winning there’s little chance they’ll stop or he will ask them to stop. Apparently Iran wants to talk but will not unless Israel stops bombing them, in the meantime Iran is compelled to defend itself. This is going nowhere fast except down the toilet. The impact it will have on grain values is probably limited at this stage. The commodities market is a complex intertwined monster though, so an increase in oil could signal inflation, grain is often a hedge against inflation. The punters are currently short wheat. If they rush to the door they could bull this market and turn a short to a long quickly, with no fundamental reasoning. Longer term, we’d probably see high prices kill high prices, especially if the world stocks to use ratio remains above 30%. So I guess this is telling us, if a rally does occur, and more importantly if that rally in futures is reflected in local prices, even if basis is rubbish, than it might be an opportunity to participate in such a rally in one way or another, be that swaps, puts, calls, futures or physical sales. At the end of the day while the stocks to use ratio remains high, prices won’t stay high.

France reduced the percentage of their soft wheat crop rated good to excellent to 68% on Friday, as many had expected. The punters appear happy though, Paris milling wheat futures shed €1.00 nearby and €0.75 / tonne in the December slot. The 7 days forecast for France shows a continuation of the dry in the north, but some good falls are expected across the west central and SW regions, possibly taking some of the pressure of durum, but also potentially becoming a quality issue for durum if rain persists.
There is talk that the Russian wheat crop may increase to as much as 90mt, a year on year increase of 7.4mt according to the Russian Ag Minister. Not ideal but also potentially unlikely considering the recent request for drought assistance across parts of the Rostov region. The spring wheat area has basically sat in mud its entire season though, so maybe it’s not all smoke and mirrors. Spring wheat harvest there is due to start late July early August, so a ways to go yet.