Some nice moves higher in both US wheat futures and most international cash values. The exception being the Black Sea market which moved lower, sticking with the current trend in that region. Russian and Ukraine wheat work into the Asian market at values either side of current Aussie values. Argentine wheat is probably a little expensive as it stands and US HRWW remains the most competitive, some US$10.00 cheaper than the Aussie equivalent protein wheat.
The move in US futures was generally reflected in the cash values out of the US Pacific Northwest, both Canadian and US spring and winter wheat moving higher by roughly AUD$3.00 to AUD$5.00 / tonne.
The main impact on US wheat futures was the weekly crop progress report. Slower than average harvest pace and lower quality ratings week on week pushing a few punters out of short positions.
The outlook for durum continues to improve. The Canadian Prairies remain mostly dry across the durum belt of southern Saskatchewan. WorldAgWeather.com show 14 day rainfall across Alberta and northern Saskatchewan missing the major durum production zone and much of eastern Montana and western N.Dakota. The US has seen a 2.1% increase in durum acres over last year. The total sown acres in the US is roughly 2.108 million versus 2.064ma in 2024. The increase comes as a result of bigger sowings in N.Dakota, up 8.2%. Countering the lower area in Montana. The desert durum crop is currently about 70% harvested. The area of desert durum was roughly 16kac lower than last heat, a 19% reduction in area.
The 7 days forecast shows more falls across Alberta and northern / central Saskatchewan and southern N.Dakota and Minnesota, but less than 20mm is predicted across the major durum belt in Canada and Montana.
Rainfall remain scarce across much of France, the 14 days anomaly map showing <20% to the average. The 7 day forecast predicts conditions there to remain the same for the week ahead. Heavy falls are expected across the Dolomite and Swiss Alps, much of Germany and Poland missing out again. Europe is dry.