US futures for wheat, corn and soybeans all saw some good technical support at Chicago ahead of this weeks US export numbers. Up country bids in the states generally saw weaker basis, the physical market not moving as high as futures. At Chicago wheat was said to be a follower of corn and beans, wheat dragged higher on technical trade. Wheat does have it’s own bundle of fundamental issues in the US and Canada though. We shouldn’t be discounting the dry conditions in western Europe either.
The 7 days forecast for the Prairies, in particular the durum belt, is starting to look a little wetter for early next week. 20-30mm may not be the 75mm that many are looking for but it may see conditions at least stabilise in the short term. This may be a case of too little too late for some but it should help. The forecast is a little patchy too, much of SE Saskatchewan and northern N.Dakota are only expecting to see 2-10mm. Alberta see’s more good rain across the major canola producing region.
The US announced a trade deal with Vietnam after confirming there we no tariffs on US imports. This is good for US wheat, Vietnam are a major importer of wheat from both the US and Australia.
Wheat values out of the Pacific Northwest, both US and Canadian, were sharply higher overnight. The day to day change in the conversion showing gains of AUD$10.00 to AUD$13.00 per tonne. This reduces the competitiveness of US HRWW into the Asian markets, now just US$4.00 less than Aussie H2 wheat.
It’s interesting to see cash bids for 1CWAD13 durum out of SE Saskatchewan were also higher, up roughly AUD$8.00 / tonne compared to yesterdays conversion. The trade are obviously keeping a close eye on the Canadian and N.Dakota durum crop. The North Dakota Wheat Commission release its weekly crop report last night. The report mentions a little storm damage but overall the ND crop is looking good after heavy rain earlier in the season got the crop away to a good, if not a little too wet, start. The N.Dakota durum crop is rated 77/2-79% G/E, a great rating. Montana is rated at just 50-8 Fair / Good.