I’ve rolled most of my price indicators to reflect the new wheat crop. Things like basis and international cash price comparisons for barley, wheat and canola will tend to reflect new crop comparisons unless stated otherwise. Sorghum comparison and index values will continue to reflect nearby plus one or two months, and will roll to the new crop as more buyers begin to publish forward contract values. To date new crop sorghum has seen little interest from the trade with bids in the vicinity of $305 – $310 XF LPP.

Overnight US futures for wheat and corn were a little softer. Soybeans found some support, up 8c/bu (AUD$4.52) nearby and 6.75c/bu in the January slot. Both soy oil and meal closed a little higher. Palm oil was the leader in the oilseed complex, moving roughly AUD$31.21/t higher in the December slot. Combine the move higher in oilseeds with the weaker AUD and we should be able to see some upside in what has become a very volatile canola / rapeseed market. Paris rapeseed futures closed €7.75 / tonne higher in the Feb 26 slot, and Winnipeg canola closed CAD$23.80 / tonne higher in the Jan 26 slot. Cash bids across SE Saskatchewan followed the Winnipeg market higher with gains of CAD$23.80 / tonne for a December lift, the average ex farm value there coming in at CAD$650.13/t for a Dec pickup. Cash values FOB Rouen France for rapeseed were also firmer, the day to day conversion comparison indicating a gain of AUD$19.24 / tonne.
China and Australia are close to signing a trade agreement with 150kt to 250kt of trial shipments possible using Australian canola. This may in time end the freeze on Aussie imports of canola which have been in place since 2020 due to “phytosanitary” reasons. This also comes at a time when China has introduced an “anti dumping” case on Canadian canola imports. The deal is not yet signed, but from the demand side it could re-open the doors to a 4mt pa market. This could also mean less competition for Canada and Ukraine canola and rapeseed into the European market. Not sure what this means for ISCC exports.