International grain markets struggled to find direction overnight. Movement was generally a smidge lower, the path of least resistance. The move lower in the AUD has limited most conversions to minor adjustments. US hard red winter wheat out of the Pacific Northwest when converted to a C&F value and then back to an equivalent Aussie value shows a slight increase. While spring wheat when converted the same way shows a slight decrease in value.
International feed barley values were generally a little higher, the average value being drawn higher by higher FOB and delivered prices for Russian feed barley.

There are different views about what a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine would mean. Some market participants are predicting it will be negative grain prices (maybe they are short futures ?). Those with a more fundamental view are seeing it as a win for the importer, lower ocean rates mean lower C&F values. Most analyst realise that it will make little difference to the supply side in the short to mid term. Russian and Ukraine will not magically find more grain to sell, but area, in Ukraine in particular, may increase longer term, depending on what the peace deal gives Russia. Thus short to mid term the freight rate is likely to be the biggest change, or more precisely, the insurance / risk portion of the execution costs.

Argentine milling wheat remains volatile. FOB river values often moving US$5.00 to US$10.00 up or down on a daily basis. The prospect of lower export taxes for Argie wheat, and the huge wheat crop they have to deal with, will mean that Argentina remain very competitive in the world market in the mid term. Currently we see Argie milling wheat working into the Asian market for roughly US$282, comparable to French wheat, but still too expensive to compete with Aussie, US and Russian wheat. Argie sorghum works into China for roughly US$7.00 more than Aussie sorghum, and then plus the Chinese import tariff.