6/1/26 Prices
Canola and rapeseed appear to be the standout winners overnight. Both Winnipeg and Paris futures have posted gains in the conversions to AUD/t from Fridays sessions. Paris, the big winner, gaining roughly AUD$15.47/t on Fridays conversion. All while the AUD pushed over 67c. The rally in rapeseed and canola futures was triggered by early gains in Chicago soybeans, which closed +17.75c/bu (+AUD$9.71/t) in the January slot. Palm oil wasn’t participating in the rally though. It had data confirming Malaysian stocks have hit a 7 year high to contend with. Crude oil was up a dollar +/-, a barrel.
US export sales for the week closing Dec 25th weren’t great, all but soybeans came in towards the lower end of expectations. Export inspections were also slow, not terrible considering what time of the year it is, but there were no surprises to stir the pot. US corn sales continue to blitz last year, now 65% better, at 26.812mt for the year. US wheat sales are also posting a 20% improvement year on year, with 15.264mt sold this marketing year to date. US soybean sales are -45% on this time last year, China not taking what they would normally. Should note there were three US sorghum boats loaded for China.
US sorghum values were a little firmer in USD/t but the higher AUD sees the day to day conversion comparison actually back a smidge this morning. Stronger US FOB values for sorghum dragged both CiF China and FOB Argentina values higher. FOB Argie numbers for sorghum convert to something like US$17.00 higher than Aussie sorghum into China. Throw a tariff on top of that and we still have scope for some upside in sorghum here, even with the higher AUD.
Durum values at Bologna we lower on January 3rd, back roughly E6.00 / tonne, not great news for those punting some durum. FOB values out of both France and Canada have remained flat overnight, the AUD having more of an impact that origin values.