The dollar is stronger, topping out at 70.79 mid session in the 12 hour chart before falling sharply to 69.77 on profit taking. The punters appeared to have taken the 1c drop as a buying opportunity, the AUD climbed back to 70.33 over the next few hours, flattening, before closing just below 70.40.

US wheat values out of the Pacific Northwest were higher. Tracking the move in US futures over the last couple of days. The move in cash wheat values has basically countered the negative pressure from the higher AUD when converting these cash values out of the PNW into the Asian market and back to an Aussie equivalent price today. In fact the move in HRWW was good enough to see an improvement of almost AUD$5.00 / t. White wheat and DNS conversions were not as strong as HRWW, but a gain is a gain these days. The PNW white wheat conversion is up almost a dollar and DNS spring wheat conversion comparison is up AUD$2.44/t day to day. Other origins were not as buoyant as the US market.
World cash wheat values, on average, drifted a little lower. The major mover is again Argentina. FOB estimates for Argentina continue to be all over the shop, often changing by more than $20 in a day. Maybe Milei will introduce a single desk marketing system to eliminate this volatility, but I doubt it, he’s more about letting the market control the market. If we take Argentine wheat out of the pool of averages we actually come up with an average improvement in world cash wheat values of just over AUD$1.00/t tonne. Not a great rally but better than what we’ve been seeing for much of the week.

There appears to be little damage to the Texas winter wheat crop from the recent freeze. Even after the snow and ice storm last weekend parts of the US HRWW remain in drought. Much of SE Oklahoma and southern Texas are in extreme drought. It’s hard to read too much into this in January or early February though. The months that make or break the HRWW crop are March / April / May. Kansas is not in any kind of drought too, Kansas is the top wheat producer.