Mixed data out of the US had the market scrambling to make sense out of a plethora of financial and consumer based data last night.
US GDP +2.2% YoY, missing the FED target of 2.5%, also down from 2.8% in 2024. US Government spending was down 5.1%, mostly at the federal level, state based expenditure actually increased. US personal consumption rose 0.4% to 3%. This is above the FEDs target of 2% and adds a little fuel to the interest rate fire. Most punters can’t see US rates falling, but are not willing to say they think rates will go up, they probably will.
This leads us to the AUD, up 0.47% against the greenback and stronger against most of our major trading partners again overnight. The move in the dollar was equal to roughly -AUD$1.39/t. The move in Chicago SRWW futures was roughly equivalent to about +AUD$7.27/t. The net result is still a plausible gain but the odds of the move in US wheat being reflected here is probably remote. Yesterday saw basis to Chicago May SRWW eroded by -17c/bu, that’s a lot.

Cash values for French wheat moved higher, following the US cash market. French milling wheat didn’t track HRWW out of the Pacific Northwest dollar for dollar, but French wheat was one of the few milling wheat’s around the world that had a red hot crack at tracking the US market. Russian milling wheat out of the Black Sea only managed to gain half a dollar. The day to day conversion to an equivalent AUD price saw the Russian milling wheat conversion actually fall AUD$0.95/t thanks to the stronger AUD.
The stronger AUD also countered some smaller gains in French, Russian and Ukraine barley values, turning a small positive into a small negative. This wasn’t the case for Paris rapeseed though. The stronger AUD turning a E4.25/t reduction in futures into a significant reduction in the day to day conversion. Roughly AUD$9.26/t was peeled off that conversion comparison last night.
Delhi chickpeas managed to find some upside, now roughly AUD$15/t above the MSP, but the AUD did take some of the cream away for pulses too.