The AUD is a bit of an issue again this morning, but generally speaking most global grain and oilseeds value were higher, so it is not having the impact on the conversion comparison it could of have if we had flat or lower global prices. It does result in the conversion comparison for milling wheat from the US and Australia C&F Asian consumer, to reveal US HRWW has once again become cheaper than Aussie product. Argentine milling wheat is leading the race to the bottom, roughly AUD$4.00/t lower than Aussie product into the same Asian consumer.

Paris rapeseed futures had the bounce of the week. After the May 2026 contract shed €13.00 /t on Tuesday it rallied €11.25/t last night. Taking the AUD into account, this represents a day to day change in the conversion of roughly +AUD$11.86/t. Just under half of the previous sessions decline. The local markets ability to cover the previous sessions drop was, surprising, but may result in a less than enthusiastic approach to reflecting the move higher in Paris futures dollar for dollar today. Canola values out of SE Saskatchewan were also higher last night. Comparing Aussie bids from yesterday to Canadian canola values overnight, C&F China basis including tariffs, indicates that the Aussie product is roughly US$2.00/t cheaper, that’s nothing.
US soybean futures, or to be more correct crude oil, is ultimately behind the rally in oil seeds. WTI crude closed +US$5.00/b to US$88.45/b, and Brent Crude was up US$5.24/b in the May slot to US$93.01/b. The rally leaves new crop soybeans at Chicago very overbought, the most overbought they’ve been in 5 years. There is also a nice gap in the Nov26 bean chart at Chicago after last nights rally. Technically speaking, gaps get filled. I’m not sure this market is actually following any rules though. I guess we should just be viewing this rally for what it may well be revealed to be in time, an opportunity for canola growers.

With a 3rd US aircraft carrier entering the party in the Middle East an end to this conflict is getting closer. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUzd9KyIDrM