Chicago corn futures were the only futures contract in the US and EU markets that had some upside last night. Weaker Chicago soybeans dragged both Paris rapeseed futures and Winnipeg canola futures lower. The oilseed complex ignored the gains in palm oil futures, instead taking the lead from WTI crude oil futures that slipped US$2.02 per barrel to close at US$71.30/b in the March slot. The link between both crude oil and soybeans is expected to become stronger as US tariffs come into play affecting the pricing dynamics of both products.
Wheat had little option but to follow the trend in outside markets, excluding corn, which is a little perplexing as higher corn values do make wheat look more attractive to some consumers. It may take some time for this to play out though. The wheat / corn spread at Chicago for the May contract is still at +84c/bu. One might expect to see this spread narrow to sub 70c/bu before it has a big impact on ration demand.
Paris milling wheat pushed lower, the nearby shedding €4.00 / tonne versus a loss of €1.75 / tonne in the November slot.

The cash market continues to digest the impact of falling demand from China. With imports of both corn and wheat combined expected to fall by 51% to 18mt its sees China’s share of world wheat and corn imports falling by roughly half their share of world imports as last year.
Combine this change in wheat and corn imports with the changes in demand for barley from S.Arabia and we have very little support for some feed products, especially barley, from two of the major consumers.
China continues to import Australian feed barley but we are yet to see volume return to 2020 levels, prior to the tariffs. China continues to try and increase domestic barley production. This combined with trade uncertainty and tariff speculation may continue to see China increase production of products currently being imported, including barley. Chinese barley area flattened out over 2023-24, but official expectations are for an increase in area again in 2025.