US futures markets were closed last night. Paris milling wheat futures fell €2.00/tonne in the Dec slot, London feed wheat futures were back £1.15 / tonne in the Jan 26 slot. Cash values around the world were mixed, generally a smidge higher.
Black Sea values were up AUD$1.00 to AUD$3.00 compared to yesterdays conversions. Canadian 1CWRS13.5 out of the Pacific Northwest was up a dollar, this is more to do with currency that grain values. Spring wheat bids across SE Saskatchewan were relatively unchanged from yesterday. SE Sask durum was flat and canola from the same area was also flat to firmer by C$1.00 for a Dec lift. Paris rapeseed futures closed in the green, the Feb 26 slot up €4.00 / tonne.
The 7 days forecast for Europe continues to look terrible, dry weather across much of France is expected to persist apart from the very NE of the country. West Germany may see 20-30mm, while falls are expected to be much lighter across West Germany. Poland is expected to see some decent falls too, possibly 30-40mm before the end of next week.
The French wheat crop condition rating fell away again this week, now rated at 67% G/E. This still seems very high when compared to the weather map and the variation they have seen to average rainfall. One would now expect the damage to have been done though. Harvest is underway and we should start to get some feed back from the ground on what actual quality and yields are. Durum will be the first to be harvested, followed by the soft winter wheat. Cash values for French durum out of Port La Nouvelle were a little firmer overnight, up roughly AUD$1.17/t compared to yesterdays conversion. French durum wheat was rated at 71% G/E, the same as last week but a huge improvement on last years 12%. This is indicating the quality should be good, the yields maybe the larger question needing an answer though.
The spring wheat region of Kazakhstan and Russia should be a little drier next week. Harvest there is still a few weeks away. This crop has seen an exceptionally good season and may be the wet blanket to this years market party. The 90 day anomaly map shows 120% – 140% of normal rainfall this season.