Chicago futures saw minimal movement in wheat, corn or soybean futures. Positioning ahead of the WASDE report due out on Monday was probably the dominant factor in overnight trade.

Fundamental influence is minimal in the northern hemisphere. It’s the middle of winter, most locations have good snow cover. Central Russia is expecting conditions to decline next week. Temperatures dipping below -20C, but they also have good snow cover in the coldest regions. This will protect the young winter wheat crop from winter kill.

The USA might be the region to watch, it’s early days but the 14 day and 30 days precipitation data continues to show that the HRWW belt, and as far north as the western and central spring wheat belt, has seen less than average precipitation. The HRWW belt has seen little precipitation, southern Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, have all seen less than 40% of average precipitation over the last 30 days. Combine this with unusually warm temperatures across the HRWW belt and we may just be seeing the development of something worth watching into their spring.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not hyping this up. I’ve seen poor winters countered by good springs in the US too many times. I’ve seen snow on Kansas wheat in head have little impact on the market. Crop failures in the northern hemisphere need to see some very catastrophic developments to constitute a failure. I remember when yields in northern Europe were coming in a 6t/ha and it was the end of the world for them. While on Europe, it should also me mentioned that France, Germany and much of Poland are also seeing a dry time. Rainfall for most of France over the last 30 days is much like the USA, less than 40% of normal rainfall. Meanwhile further east in Russia precipitation is good, much of central Russia seeing 120-130% of average 30 days precipitation.