International wheat markets were generally lower overnight, both cash and futures. There was a 0.51% slip in the AUD against the USD which has helped turn a lot of the weaker closes into flat or even slightly firmer comparisons to yesterdays numbers. Hard red winter wheat out of the US Pacific Northwest was one of the worst performers last night with sharply lower conversion this morning. Hard red winter wheat futures at Chicago were lower, back 7 1/4 c /bu in the nearby, roughly -AUD$4.12/t, less than half the change in PNW values. This could be indicating that the PNW number is an anomaly, see what tonight brings.
Canadian and US spring wheat out of the PNW did not slip as much as the HRWW did, US DNS by less than a dollar, and CWRS actually up in AUD/t.
The French milling wheat conversion was lower day to day though, shedding roughly AUD$5.00/t compared to yesterdays conversion. Both these moves, the US HRWW and French, tend to bring to the forefront the amount of competition there is, and will continue to be, in global milling wheat over the coming months. I know it’s not unusual to call wheat flat and boring during the Jan / Feb / March period most years, but this year is taking it to a new level of nothingness. Bring on the spring thaw.
The forecast for the US hard red winter wheat belt had been showing the chance of shower or two in dry parts of the belt, which is most of it. This mornings forecast is showing rainfall over the next 7 days to be generally east of the Mississippi, missing the majority of the HRWW belt. Not a huge problem now in the middle of winter, but does indicate that the US HRWW crop will need everything going its way come spring.
The south of France is expected to see a few showers this week, potentially heavy rain towards the coast. The northern parts of France and parts of Germany and Poland remain very dry though. Russia has seen good moisture but is expected to see less in the week ahead. There is some talk of ice sheeting in Russia but generally conditions in central and southern Russia are very good.
International sorghum values slipped lower overnight. US FOB values fell sharply, influencing the Shenzhen index and Argie cash offers up river, both falling.