15/1/26 Prices

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International wheat values are back to the grind. US wheat futures recovered a little, nothing very convincing, but at least they didn’t closer lower like Paris milling wheat futures did. The nearby Paris contract was back E1.50/t, May shed E1.25/t.
Looking over the major exporter conversion values compared to yesterday we see Black Sea values have little change, Argie milling wheat is roughly AUD$3.42/t higher. French wheat is lower by less than an aussie dollar per tonne, and US HRWW out of the PNW is up by just over a dollar. White wheat out of the US PNW into the Asian market is flat. Wheat markets are becoming my proxy sleeping pill.

Cargill sold 60kt of feed barley to Jordan at US$273.50 CiF. On the back of an envelope that’s roughly equivalent to AUD$297 XF LPP, less insurance and trade margin. I find this a little surprising. Is does tend to confirm what has been the truth for a while though, that Aussie feed barley is some of the cheapest on the planet at present. Take Russian barley and try and work it into China and you come up with a comparable XF LPP number of something closer to AUD$300+. French barley into China comes in closer to AUD$335.

The next cab off the rank will be sorghum. Argie and US conversions into the Chinese market, once import tariffs are considered, were roughly US$10.00 above where we see local bids working into China. The day to day conversion comparison is about +AUD$1.55/t for US product and about +AUD$1.11/t for the Chinese index. The Argie day to day conversion comparison is roughly down about 70c / tonne. Worldagweather.com shows the Argentine sorghum area has seen average to possibly a little below average rainfall this summer. Average to slightly cooler than average temperatures there are helping though. Not like what we are seeing here on the plains, hot and dry with recent storms missing plenty of wilting sorghum fields.

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