According to the Indian weather office January was unusually warm and the prediction of a warmer, drier February has a few punters back peddling of winter crop production estimates there. The main crops likely to be impacted are wheat, canola and our favorite… chickpeas.
I’m always skeptical of those that forecast doom on the back of long term weather model. If that forecaster is and Indian official or grain trader, that makes me even more skeptical. A quick look at Worldagweather.com and we see that maximum temperature departure for much of India over the last 30 days has seen temperatures in the far east roughly 0.5C to 2C warmer than average.
Temperatures in the major chickpea areas towards the C-NW have been average to slightly below average. Minimum nighttime temperatures across the warmer parts of NE India have actually been cooler than average too.

Algeria is tendering for the supply of feed barley this week. As with their wheat tenders, barley is set at a nominal minimum 50kt. Algeria will often buy significantly more than 50kt at these tenders.
Overnight Black Sea and European barley values were a smidge higher. Aussie FOB and C&F offers into China and S.Arabia were a little lower. The softer AUD did manage to counter these lower Aussie offers, keeping day to day conversions back unchanged at an ex farm Aussie equivalent price.

There’s some talk of the chance of winter kill in wheat across northern parts of Ukraine over the next couple of days. Temperatures are expected to drop as low as -20C to -25C there today and tomorrow. Winter wheat fields with little to no snow cover may struggle to survive these extreme temperatures. Looking at few weather reports one gets the feeling that the threat may be minimal, mid January did see some snow and conditions have been cold since.