With US markets and the ICE closed last night there’s not heaps of technical data to look at this morning. AUD / USD was flat, unchanged from yesterday. The AUD did see some minor adjustments against a few of the majors though. The AUD generally trending a little firmer.
MATIF grain futures were generally softer. Paris milling wheat shed E0.25/t in the May slot and E0.50/t in the Dec slot. London feed wheat was a tad softer and Paris corn futures were down one Euro in the June slot. Paris rapeseed futures were the clear winner in last nights session, gaining E6.25/t in the May slot. Comparing last nights conversion to Friday nights conversion shows an increase in the conversion of AUD$9.38/t. Palm oil was not convinced this was the right direction, shedding roughly AUD$10.87/t in the May slot.

As if the global wheat market isn’t doing it hard enough at present India has decided to join the madness authorising 2.5mt of bulk wheat exports and 500kt of wheat products and sugar. The move was said to be politically driven after Indian producers protested the Modi / Trump trade deal. Raising concerns that Indian producers are being thrown under the bus to appease US imports. Indian wheat is currently indicated at US$306 FOR, Free On Rail, at the port. So the chance of huge export sales is probably not a major threat at these values.

Conditions across Turkey have changed dramatically over the last 30 days with significant rainfall across the SW of the country and very good falls across most of the major durum producing regions. This rain is perfect for durum which is sown from December through to March and harvested during our winter months. Russia has also seen some good rainfall over the last 30 days. Private estimates for the 2026 Russian wheat crop run as high as 91mt, +4mt YoY. Further west across Europe, Italy and Spain have seen very heavy rain while France, Germany and Poland have seen less than average volume.