19/2/26 Prices
Chicago wheat futures bounced higher for all grades last night. The market probably spurred on by some technical coverage and by thoughts that the USDA acreage report may tell the market US area is well back on last year. The punters are expecting to see a sown area of something close to 44.7 million acres of wheat in the USA, back 600kac on last years sowings.
The US market also found support from better than expected weekly corn export inspections, loadings. At 1.492mt the official number beat the highest trade estimate prior to the release of the data. Corn futures at Chicago closed in the green, up just 1c/bu in the May slot (AUD$0.56/t). Not exactly a surge higher, especially given that the US export loadings are now 44% higher than this time last year.
Wheat may have found some support from shipping delays out of Russia. Weather continues to be an issue for the Black Sea region. No sign of the Ukraine / Russian conflict ending soon is also supportive to US wheat values. Longer term neither are bullish, lower exports = higher ending stock.
Strong soyoil values, but a larger than expected US soybean crush rate, were also a feature of last nights markets. The spillover into the canola market was mixed. Winnipeg gaining value, the cash price XF SE Saskatchewan was up more than futures, gaining CAD$8.85/t for a March lift.
This takes Canadian canola C&F China to roughly US$534 + 15% tariff, US$614/t. Compared to Australian east coast canola at roughly US$599 + 9% tariff US$650, a premium of US$36, this premium is reducing slowly as Canadian values climb on return biz with China and bigger domestic crush numbers.
International sorghum values were a smidge higher, the combination of the softer AUD, better USD values, both FOB US and C&F China, should help.