The Aussie dollar is firmer, much firmer this morning. It’s up 1.4% against the US dollar and 1.16% against the Indian Rupee and over half a percent against the Euro and Loonie. With grain futures in the US also weaker in overnight trade we don’t need Albert Einstein on board to work out the most plausible direction for prices today.

It was / is all about the Brexit referendum. A YouGov poll was released by Sky News showing a 52% remain vote was expected. That’s pretty close but gave all the punters the confidence they needed to get long currency. If by this afternoon the expectation is not met, well, you may have to release the hounds to slow the selloff.

Winter wheat harvest is getting under way in far south Russia and Crimea. Yields are a little better than last year, 4.9t/ha vs 4.5t/ha at the moment. There are reports of disease and lodging due to wet weather, this is likely to become an issue as the harvest progresses into later developing crops that are also expected to have higher potential yields.

Rain moved through the corn and soybean belt in the US forcing row crop futures lower. Wheat went along for the ride…lower.