Export sales data out of the US ended up determining the market direction last night. Corn and soybeans saw exports at better than expected levels while poor old US wheat was snubbed again. Surprisingly spring wheat futures saw the biggest losses. Spring wheat, the wheat most similar to our APH grade, was lower by just under AUD$4.00 / tonne. This shouldn’t have any impact on local grade spreads though as the US grade spread between SRW and DNS wheat is still AUD$47.00 / tonne versus local spread here between APW1 and APH2 of $28.00 / tonne.
Wheat futures in the US also found some pressure from expected rainfall across the HRW belt over the weekend.

With production concerns for the balance (20%) of the Saskatchewan wheat crop and a large slice of the WA wheat crop we shouldn’t see a huge amount of downside in global wheat values in the long term.
Good sowing and establishment seasons in both the US and Black Sea states will continue to cap any potential moves higher though so it looks like another range bound period at least until the northern hemisphere spring. We will undoubtedly see the funds create movement in futures but as to how  much of that volatility will be reflected in cash prices is yet to be seen.