Prices 05/12/16
Some upside in US wheat futures last night limited week on week losses to roughly $8 / tonne, halving the potential loss it could have been. Squaring up prior to the expiry of the December contract, dryer weather forecast for the US HRW belt and good weekly US export data all put a more positive spin on wheat futures last night.
International buyers continue to read trade, consumer and farmer posts on the internet about how big the Aussie crop is. This combined with large world stocks will continue to cap any potential rally in wheat, especially the lower grades. Quality out of WA is worse than expected. Lower protein and frost damage will see an average crop come out of the west in 2016-17.
US wheat futures may see some further technical support over the next week or so. If this is reflected in local cash values we may see an opportunity to sell wheat for those looking to create some cash flow in the short term.
Canola at the ICE closed a little higher while values at Paris slipped a little. Neither exchange is likely to have an impact on what local traders do as the recent trend of gauging basis to pay for oil premiums is likely to continue. At current levels of basis though we should at least begin to see cash bids here flatten or even and potentially rise on improved demand out of the sub continent.