The media is starting to pick up on the large swath of Black Sea wheat that has come out from under the snow in the last week or so of warmer than normal weather. Around 1.5mha of winter wheat has been left without any cover. Temperatures are not extreme, by Russian standards, but at -12C there is the real chance we may see some winter kill across the far southern wheat belts of Russia and the Ukraine in 2017.
The fund managers do not seem particularly worried though and continue to extend their short position in US wheat futures.
We still have a few weeks to go before we are officially in the “silly season” when US futures market historically over react to every little production promise or failure around the world. Look for increased volatility in March / April this year.

PDQ peg CWAD1 durum @ 13% protein values in central Saskatchewan are around CAD$277 / tonne. There continues to be a small carry in the market through to August when new crop is readily available and then we see a reduction of around C$30 / tonne in values. Costs to FOB are roughly C$115 / tonne. This would indicate prices have fallen a little, $5 – $15 since the official report showing a significant increase in Canadian carryover durum in 2016-17. Although the quality of this product is very low it has had a negative impact on prices in the short term. Sales volume out of Canada has been low in 2016.