The Aussie dollar topped out at 76.33USC before slipping back under 76 and then
settling into a range which finally saw it close out slightly above where it started at
75.88. The RBA left rates on hold but their spiel was considered more upbeat than
expected. I don’t think they are considering regional retail sales in their data
somehow. The AUD continues to be torn between a mixed to possibly weaker
Chinese economy in the mid term and better commodity prices in the short term.
Most analyst do tend to think that the short to mid term direction for the AUD is
more likely to be lower against the USD though.
In the US grains market we see wheat and corn slightly weaker while soybeans are
back a little more at -12c/bu on the nearby contract, a decline of just under
AUD$6.00 / tonne. A bigger S.American crop was the key to the weakness with more
private analyst getting onboard and increasing their latest production estimates by 1
to 2mt. Trade estimates for Brazil now range from 106 to 109mt. The weaker bean
market had the usual knock on effect to both ICE canola and Paris rapeseed futures.
ICE was lower by C$4.30 / tonne on the nearby while the Paris contract was off the
equivalent of AUD$6.60 / tonne.
Wheat futures were generally lower with little bullish news out there at present.
Some punters are calling the US conditions too warm and dry but we have a long
way to go. Black Sea crops appear to be in good condition.