The USDA threw a spanner in the works last night and increased US corn and soybean production this is opposed to what the majority of the trade in the US thought the USDA would do and decrease average yields in both grains. The average corn yield is expected to come in somewhere around 169.5bpa (10.64t/ha). Soybeans were smashed, falling over 30c/bu on the nearby contracts. Corn slipped 15c/bu on the nearby contract, taking December 2017 to a new low since it started trading. I guess this answers the downside question I asked yesterday morning.
Wheat production estimates were on the high side too. Spill over selling from the row crops combined with estimates higher than the trade had expected and wheat managed some substantial losses in all three grades by the close. Spring wheat surprised the punters with the USDA calling the crop 10.9mt, still well above what most people expect to see. Durum production in the US was reduced from 1.578mt in July to 1.524mt, which was right at the high end of expectations.

The wheat numbers Aug (July), USA 47.89 (47.33), Argentina 17.5 (17.5), Australia 23.5 (23.5), Canada 28.35 (26.5), EU 150 (149.56), Russia 77.5 (72), Kazakhstan 14 (13), Ukraine 26.5 (24). Brazil saw wheat production back a smidge but the big changes are in the FSU states. I can’t help but feel these numbers still have a lot of refining to do though, especially Australia, Canada and Ukraine.