From the outside the US wheat futures market appears to have some kind of disconnect with reality. Why I’m surprised I have no idea, it’s not like it’s a reflection of the actual wheat market on a daily basis these days is it.
So fundamentally we saw export loading out of the USA hit a marketing year high of 694kt for the week, this is just under the weekly tonnage required to meet the USDA projection but a healthy increase from last week’s data.
The trade were expecting to see numbers closer to 400kt.
Is this a simple case of buy the rumour / sell the fact. Is the fund money getting pulled for bigger bets elsewhere. Is it like most wires are saying and is simply “technical trade”……..what actually is technical trade these days. The charts are already indicating that May SRW at the CME is oversold.
Some analyst are simply saying the punters are now realising that the US sales pace simply cannot sustain a level to meet the USDA projections. I mean seriously, have these guys been living under a rock with 10 tonnes of hopes and promises weighing it down. They haven’t looked like nailing the USDA number for months. Even with Russian exports at about half the pace they were prior to the new year.
I’m getting a little cynical now but it does tend to make one wonder if China are about to buy a decent slice of wheat off the USA, they did appear on the sales sheet for last week’s US loadings, it was only 52kt but a sales a sale.
In any case, last night’s fall in US values does indeed make the USA the dominant supplier for Asian markets, let’s see if exports pick up.