Technical traders at Chicago jumped on the lower Russian wheat forecast by SovEcon to clear some of the sold slots. The Russian wheat estimate was reduced to 73.7mt. This is a tad lower than the official Russian estimate of 75mt and also a little lower than the current USDA estimate of 74.2mt. Reports from the ground continue to suggest Russian quality is very good this year. Some have suggested a little too good and the abundance of good quality wheat will put pressure on feed values.

The weather outlook for the US is considered favourable with drier, cooler conditions expected to prevail for the next week or so. Corn was steady yet slightly lower on the news while soybeans found some technical support. Fundamental support for soybeans was gathered from increased optimism on a US / China trade deal, seriously getting sick of hearing this every time the market moves 5c higher.

In Canada the 14 days rainfall map tells the story. There’s been good rain across much of the Canola growing districts while further south the durum belt has remained a little drier than desired. The US durum belt has had good rain and conditions are very favourable at present. Canadian durum values are relatively flat with SW Saskatchewan bid at C$233 for a December pickup ex farm. This would indicate a price of around AUD$365 NTP Newcastle for DR1 should be achievable.
Talk of frost damage to the wheat crop in Parana, Brazil may see higher imports from Argentina this year.