The US weather map offers a mixed bag for the punters. The corn belt is expected to see a little rain while the Gulf states will see heavy rain around the mouth of the Mississippi and north across where roughly 20-30% of the US cotton crop is produced. According to last night’s USDA crop progress report about 15% of the US cotton crop has open bolls, a lot of the states about to see heavy rain are leading the open boll count too.

The punters were happy to buy soybeans and corn last night. Chicago corn gained 4.75c/bu (AUD$2.60/t). Volume was back a bit from the previous session in the December contract as it’s already relatively over bought. Speculation was around a lower crop condition rating in the evenings USDA crop progress report. They won’t be 100% disappointed, with corn falling from 71% G/E to 69% G/E this week. Not a huge fall but probably enough to make one wonder if the USDA are now well off the pace with their yield expectations. My modelling would suggest a yield closer to 170 – 175bu/ac is more likely than the current estimate of 181.8bu/a. Either way you look at it though the US is still going to have a large crop. Even at 170bu/ac the crop could exceed 400mt.
About 35% of the US sorghum crop is also in the path of the heavy rain but the bulk of the crop is grown in NW Texas and west Kansas so isn’t expected to be in too much trouble. With 75% of the southern sorghum now colouring it’s probably not an ideal time to see 8″ of rain though. The crop rating for the Texas crop is not that great already, one would expect to see the G/E rating slip lower again next week.