Winnipeg canola futures and Paris rapeseed futures were both sharply lower in overnight trade. Combine this move lower in oilseed futures with a rally in the value of the AUD and there is the perfect storm for some downside in local canola prices today.
Paris basis is the best it’s been in months, probably helped along a little by the value of the AUD. Be wary of a local correction in price and possibly the loss of some basis in the short term. It’s not that basis is good, it’s not, it’s terrible, just not as terrible as it has been during the harvest window and leading up to harvest.
The prospect of a large soybean crop in Brazil is the anchor to the oilseeds market at present. Drought in Argentina is bullish, export restrictions for palm oil out of Indonesia is bullish, EU / Black Sea production is bullish. Aussie production and quality is bearish.
Going forward into 2023 canola prices may come under pressure if the AUD improves against the majors and S.American production is realised.

International feed barley numbers remain mixed but generally lower. A combination of lower offer values into the major importers like S.Arabia and China and the stronger AUD may put pressure on local values here if the trade benchmark against export parity. This is more likely to hurt bids in the major exporting states like S.Aust and WA. Barley production across northern NSW and the S.QLD consumers markets was lower, domestic demand should ensure a premium over export parity exists. There is potential downside in local prices though.

A 65kt boat load of Ukraine corn heading to China has run aground in the Suez Canal. According to satellite tracking the vessel is underway again.