Paris milling wheat futures, like Chicago, are now running a net short position. Although Paris closed E2.50 higher on the nearby it may take more than one session to correct this. With the USDA WASDE report out tonight we may see a little volatility if the report does more than confirm the trades expectations of higher world wheat ending stocks and larger production in both Russia and Australia.
There’s a chance, remote at best, that there may also be some increases in demand from China and India for wheat, potentially countering the increased production numbers, that’d be nice.

Egypt picked up 60kt of Russian wheat overnight at US$337 C&F.  On the back of an envelope using frieght estimates for Australian wheat to Egypt this trade compares roughly to about AUD$400 ex farm LPP, which is a little lower than current bids here. This is probably fair given that Russian wheat is always going to win a supply tender into that part of the world. In saying that, we are seeing H2 bid at roughly AUD$460 at the port for export, around $405 ex farm LPP equivalent. So, if push came to shove Aussie wheat could make inroads into the Middle East in 2023 if needed.
There is talk of some east coast consumer domestic premiums for H2 wheat that could potentially be above the current export price. If you have H2 in store on farm or in the system let me know.

Chicago wheat was a little firmer as the trade engaged in some short covering prior to tonight’s USDA report. The trade also predict a significant increase in weekly US wheat sales and export volume after the lower numbers seen during the break.