US wheat, soybean and corn futures initially shows some strength in the overnight session but by the close of the day session it was sea of red. Nearby corn futures were smashed, wheat was sharply lower while the soybean market is still struggling to digest a 150+ million tonne Brazilian soybean crop. Technically the HRW chart is a dog’s breakfast, what was shaping up as a possible rally has failed and we may test the downside resistance in the short to midterm.
Some of the punters are calling this week’s WASDE bearish wheat. It’s not every month you see world ending stocks reduced and the market considers things bearish. I’m not even convinced the US weather map is that bearish. There’s some good rain predicted for the US soft red winter wheat regions, but those dry parts of Kansas and the Pan Handle are likely to remain dry, Nebraska is starting to look a little dry too.
Yes, it’s early days but the US HRW crop has not at any stage of its growth cycle during 2022-23 had even a half easy run at it.
Rainfall across France was also a little less than expected. This has much of France only seeing 40% – 60% of average rainfall for this time of year. The forecast for France looks a little better than it does for Kansas though. There’s potentially 25 – 50mm of rain due across much of France over the next 7 days. Germany will also benefit from this rain.
In Argentina, Santa Fe and Cordoba have seen trace falls this week, heavier to the west of the main cropping regions in Cordoba and south of the Pampas. This drier weather was again accompanied by heat, toasting any corn that was already stressed.
Weather across Russia and Ukraine is not too bad, some places too wet, some too dry, but generally you would have to say from a weather perspective Russia looks OK. There has been good rain across the spring wheat regions of Kazakhstan and Russia too.