International sorghum values were a smidge higher in US dollars but the AUD has countered that, and some, this morning. In AUD / tonne the move reflects plausible downside of AUD$2.00 to AUD$3.00 per tonne. Chicago corn futures were a little firmer overnight, helping to support US sorghum values. So it’s mainly just the pesky AUD not playing the game at present.
The YEN made a slight recovery against the AUD too, not much, but it could be enough to signal that the free fall is coming to an end for the Yen. At Y100.11 to the AUD it’s the best time for Aussies to holiday in Japan that we’ve seen in years. Japan is usually a significant buyer of Australian sorghum but this year purchases are minimal, less than 30kt, this time last year purchases were over 100kt.

Recent moves in Chicago wheat futures have bucked the mid term trend higher. December 24 futures for SRWW shed another 3c/bu last night. The technical punters are now torn between a “correction lower”, “a minor correction due to end of month profit taking”, “a minor correction as funds rolled”, “this is a blip in a longer term uptrend”, and “the higher USD is going to kill exports of US wheat”.
That leaves the fundamental traders standing there with the their mouth open, not unlike that Pikachu meme, pointing at a rainfall map for Kansas, Sth Russia, the Palliser Triangle in Canada and falling crop condition in Europe and the driest start in some time for Western Australia. Fun times.
Argentina is starting to dry out a bit and the 7 day forecast is also calling for drier weather. This will help get the summer crop harvested and the winter crop in. The other news for Argentina is the threat of an extended port strike as higher wage taxes and labour reform for port workers is being protested.
The 7 days rainfall forecast for France is about as far from what they wanted as you can get. Heavy rain is expected across western and central France. Falls of 30mm to 80mm are predicted to start over the weekend. The wet weather may also push east into southern Germany.