StatsCanada released some stocks data last night for the March 31st period. That’s a while ago now but the data is still interesting, particularly for durum. At 1.651mt the Canadian stocks level is the lowest it has been in 35 years. It’s back 23.6% on last year and back a massive 42.9% on the five year average.
All I can say is that the major importers are very lucky that Turkey managed to pull off a cracking crop of durum last year or prices today could be potentially $100’s of dollars higher than they are.
This does mean we’ll need to keep a close eye on durum production in Italy, Turkey, Mexico, N.Africa and Canada over the next two months. With durum harvest now underway in Mexico it’s possible the gap may be plugged from there in the short term. The next cabs off the rank are around the Mediterranean, including Turkey and Italy.
US and EU wheat futures were a little lower overnight. Interestingly London feed wheat futures were sharply higher. This is against the flow in corn futures at either exchange too. International sorghum values were a little higher, in AUD terms sorghum was up between AUD$3.00 and AUD$6.00 out of the US and CiF China. The Chinese index also higher. The weaker AUD helping a little here.
Chicago soybeans were generally lower nearby. The news out of Brazil now old, the bulls need feeding everyday apparently. The forecast of more heavy rain across SE Brazil could have an impact on wheat area too. Rio Grande do Sul produces around 39% of the Brazilian wheat crop. Sowing there commences in May and goes through to about the end of June, not unlike both the Australian and Argentine sowing window for wheat. Brazilian wheat production was already estimated to be a little lower than last years record harvest. Further reductions will basically put more pressure on imports from Argentina.
Russian wheat has been affected by drought and heat over the last 30 days. A couple of mornings ago temperatures dropped down to as low as -7C across the upper parts of the Volga Valley. Severe frosts were not prolific in the south though, where major damage would have occurred, but some losses are likely.