The slightly weaker AUD may go some way to buffering moves lower in US wheat futures and cash vales out of the Pacific Northwest overnight. While US wheat values were generally lower Black Sea and even some French port values were seen to be higher. The cost of execution of Black Sea business may also be a problem going forward.
Private analyst IKAR reduced their estimate of the Russian wheat crop to 81.5mt. They are seeing reductions not only in the winter wheat due to drought and frost but ironically also reductions in the spring wheat crop due to excessive rain, not unlike much of Europe.
The futures market also succumb to technical trade, Chicago wheat futures falling victim to profit taking after touching 10 month highs earlier this week. There were no real fundamental reasons for the fall in US wheat futures. International prospects were generally unchanged or worse for production and US crop ratings were a little lower. The lack of disruptions to the US summer crop sowing is surprising, but could lead to some bearish spill over pressure on wheat. Row crops, as per wheat, and a raft of other commodities, were all hit with profit taking leading to months end.

The punters are tipping India will become a net importer of wheat after a 6 year break. The best option the Indian government has is likely the same as what they have done with chickpeas, the removal of import duties. In the case of wheat that duty is 40%. This may see imports move into the Indian market, boosting supplies and stabilising their local prices in the mid term. Currently wheat is valued at US$324 port India. It is hard to convert this to a comparable price XF LPP price as specific costs associated with this price are hard to determine. The exercise may also be mute given the potential removal of the 40% tariff. Current Indian values are still some US$13 below the recent peak in January.
Chickpea values were back 61Rs/Q at the Delhi market, not a huge slide in value but the first adjustment lower this week after setting a new high.