Further declines in EU wheat condition supported world wheat prices overnight. French soft wheat condition was estimated at 58% G/VG, this is back 2pts on last week and much lower than the 81% rating a year earlier. The percentage of the crop in a very poor state also increased 3pts to 5%. The French soft wheat yields are expected to be at an eight year low, with an average yield of just 6.4t/ha, 13% lower than last year……. that must be devastating.
Combined with the 7.3% reduction in sown area from last year, these latest estimates will make this years French soft wheat crop 28.13mt, 6.97t lower than last year. The punters still expect to see the average protein at 11.6%, comparable to 2023.
French carry in wheat stocks are at a 19 year high after a poor export program for 2023-24. The larger carry in will keep EU supply at a high level and continue to buffer any significant move higher in prices domestically.
Paris milling wheat futures closed higher up €2.50 in the Dec24 slot to €235 / tonne. Paris rapeseed futures were also higher, the Feb25 slot closing €8.00 / tonne higher. The strength in the Paris rapeseed market was reflected in the Winnipeg canola market which also closed higher.

With news of both Russia and Ukraine setting minimum export prices it may lead one to wonder how the trade will react. The Ukraine prices will be determined not so much by their local S&D but by the previous months values. Potentially buffering falls in price unless values are initially forced lower. Overnight Russian FOB values were lower, roughly US$215.25 is some US$5.00 to US$6.00 under current Ukraine estimates.
Russian wheat production was estimated at 84.1mt by private analyst Sovecon, an increase of 3.4mt from their previous estimate and 1.1mt higher than the current USDA estimate of 83mt. Weather in the main winter wheat producing regions of Russia have again turned dry, enabling harvest to reach 10% complete as of the middle of the week. WorldAgWeather.com shows continued rain across the Russian spring wheat region, a possible dream season there.